Private Markets Alert Newsletter (1)

Issue Number 022 - October 22, 2025 - The Cockroach Moment

Author

The Editor
October 22, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes

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✍️ Op-Ed: When the Warnings Align

Jamie Dimon's stark warning that "when you see one cockroach, there are probably more" following JPMorgan's $170 million Tricolor loss converged with Jeffrey Gundlach calling private credit the "leading candidate" for the next financial crisis. The timing is notable: Tricolor and First Brands bankruptcies total over $12 billion in bad debt while PE-backed IPOs track toward capturing 40% of 2025 IPO capital and 401(k) democratization accelerates. Both Dimon and Gundlach correctly predicted the 2008 crisis. When they align on warnings while the industry pushes hardest into retail markets, the contradiction demands attention. The pattern repeats: maximum distribution effort coinciding with maximum caution from sophisticated observers who profit whether markets rise or fall.

🤝Top Deals:

  • JPMorgan disclosed $170 million loss from Tricolor Holdings bankruptcy, with CEO Jamie Dimon warning "when you see one cockroach, there are probably more" as First Brands filed for Chapter 11 with $10+ billion debt. Read more →

  • PE-backed IPOs more than doubled year-over-year in first nine months of 2025, with PitchBook projecting PE companies will capture 40% of all IPO capital—nearly 10% above decade average. Read more →

  • Zions Bancorporation and Western Alliance stock plummeted 13% and 10% respectively after Zions disclosed $50 million charge-off on two business loans, intensifying contagion fears across regional banks. Read more →

  • Hamilton Lane launched tokenized private credit fund on Sei Network via Kaio's institutional-grade infrastructure, bringing blockchain technology to traditionally illiquid alternative assets. Read more →

  • Blue Owl CEO Marc Lipschultz publicly rebuked Dimon's warning as "odd fear-mongering," stating banks should examine their own books for cockroaches since Tricolor and First Brands were bank-led deals. Read more →

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