Private Markets Alert Newsletter

✍️ Op-Ed: The Regulatory Paradox

SEC announced March 4 roundtable on private markets valuation week after Blue Owl crisis. JPMorgan's Troy Rohrbaugh declared: "I'm shocked that people are shocked" about private credit stress. Bain reported PE distributions at 14% of NAV—second-lowest since 2008—as industry sits on $3.8T unsold assets for fourth straight year, duration worse than 2008 crisis. McKinsey found deal value hit $2.6T (up 19%), median buyout EBITDA multiples reaching record 11.8x. The irony: SEC discussing "responsible retailization" as Rohrbaugh expresses shock at inevitable late-cycle stress, PE sits on worst distribution drought in history, record multiples signal deployment pressure overwhelming discipline. Retail entry accelerates precisely when fundamentals suggest institutional flight.

🤝 Top Deals & Market Activity: Bifurcated Recovery

McKinsey reported PE deal value rebounded 19% to $2.6T in 2025—second-highest value on record. Global buyout value reached $1.8T (up 20%). Buyout deals above $500M increased 44% to over $1.1T—record year eclipsing 2021 peak. Buyout deals above $2.5B surged 72% to over $600B. Electronic Arts $55B take-private became largest PE deal in history.

Yet deal count declined. Global PE deals dropped 9% in 2025, continuing decline from 2021 peak of 80,000 deals. McKinsey: recovery "decidedly narrow"—swath of very large buyout funds dominated activity, aided by massive direct equity injections from sovereign wealth funds and corporate partners. Median buyout EBITDA multiples hit record 11.8x in 2025, edging past prior high.

Exit value increased 41% to $1.3T—second-highest on record. PE-backed IPOs nearly doubled in value to $320B. Growth driven by larger IPOs above $2.5B, which grew 148% from $98B in 2024 to $246B in 2025. Yet exit count declined 15%—all exit types experienced slowdown except IPOs (up 8% by count).

Continuation vehicles tripled from $35B in 2020 to $115B in 2025. McKinsey estimates 14% of exits now involve GP-led secondaries. Secondary market traded volume increased 48% in 2025. Firms increasingly selling assets back to themselves to generate distributions while maintaining portfolio exposure.

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