Private Markets Alert Newsletter

✍️ Op-Ed: The Software Reckoning

Apollo's John Zito stunned investors last fall with a blunt question: "Is software dead?" His warning proved prescient. Blue Owl plunged 26% over 11 sessions—longest losing streak since 2021 listing—as AI disruption fears spread through private markets. UBS estimates 25-35% of private credit exposed to AI disruption risk. Simultaneously, PE exits rose 5.4% to 3,149 deals while total value collapsed 21.2% to $412.1B—quantity without quality as firms finally accept valuation reality after years of optimistic marks. Morningstar declares 2025 "a reality check for private markets" as returns track at half their longer-term averages. The contradiction: managers defensively insist software portfolios remain "pristine" while simultaneously facing the industry's first major sector-specific existential threat since the financial crisis. Private markets built a $440B software empire assuming revenue stickiness and predictable cash flows—precisely the characteristics AI threatens to eliminate overnight.

🤝 Top Deals & Market Activity: Software Panic Spreads

Blue Owl fell 26% over 11-session losing streak—longest since 2021 listing—as software fears hit private credit. Blue Owl's tech-focused BDC at record lows. TPG, Ares, KKR, Apollo declined 8-10% amid selloff. VanEck BDC Income ETF fell 5.6% for week—steepest decline since October. iShares Software ETF down 20% year-to-date including another 5% drop Tuesday.

Global PE exits rose 5.4% to 3,149 deals, yet value plummeted 21.2% to $412.1B. Blackstone PE realizations hit $10.8B in Q4—highest quarterly total of 2025—with full-year reaching $33.9B. Medline IPO raised $7B+ in upsized offering—largest PE-backed IPO ever—stock surged 30% since December debut. PitchBook data shows 2025 exit value nearly $730B, second-best year ever after 2021, yet backlog persists with 30,000+ PE-backed companies held as of March 2025.

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