Private Markets Alert Newsletter

Issue Number 019 - October 1, 2025 - The Casino Warning & Apollo's $40 Trillion Vision

Author

The Editor
October 01, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes

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✍️ Op-Ed: The Great Contradiction - $40 Trillion Dreams Meet Casino Warnings

The jarring collision between Apollo's projection of private credit reaching $40 trillion by 2030 and top European finance chiefs warning of "casino behavior" captures private markets' existential contradiction. While Apollo envisions unprecedented growth, BofA identifies clear signs of rising stress and Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon issues warnings, suggesting the industry's leaders fundamentally disagree about market direction and sustainability.

The timing exposes dangerous disconnection between growth ambitions and operational reality. Australian regulators demanding enhanced standards while reporting damning findings about market concentration contradicts Apollo's expansion vision. When sophisticated financial centers simultaneously embrace and warn against private credit expansion, it suggests fundamental uncertainty about appropriate risk management and regulatory frameworks.

Private equity's $5 trillion "existential dread" and Bloomberg's observation that private equity is "getting boring" reveals industry maturation challenges. While private credit giants turn debt into equity for jumbo deals, fundamental questions persist about sustainable value creation versus financial engineering approaches.

The regulatory environment reflects this uncertainty. SEC Democrats fear "high-speed collisions" while Trump administration signals reporting changes that could affect oversight standards. This regulatory divergence occurs as retail investor access expands despite mounting systemic concerns.

Apollo's $40 trillion vision assumes continued regulatory accommodation, institutional allocation increases, and operational excellence across thousands of managers. Yet casino behavior warnings suggest fundamental risk management deterioration that could undermine growth assumptions through regulatory backlash, institutional retreat, and performance deterioration. The industry faces a critical choice: address operational challenges honestly or risk regulatory intervention that constrains growth regardless of market opportunity.

🤝Top Deals:

  • Apollo projects private credit could reach $40 trillion by 2030, representing unprecedented growth from current $4.3 trillion market size amid mounting regulatory concerns. Read more →

  • Private Credit Giants turn debt into equity for jumbo deals, demonstrating structural innovation as traditional lending approaches face capacity constraints and risk management challenges. Read more →

  • Siemens Diagnostics Unit attracts private equity interest in potential $7 billion deal, highlighting healthcare technology sector consolidation and strategic buyer competition. Read more →

  • Regional Banks positioned to lead private credit expansion according to Deloitte analysis, leveraging existing relationships and regulatory advantages over alternative lenders. Read more →

  • Limited Partners plan to increase private credit allocations over next three years despite regulatory warnings and stress indicators across multiple jurisdictions. Read more →

  • Private Credit ETFs gain simplified investment case through enhanced structures and operational improvements addressing retail investor accessibility requirements. Read more →

  • Australian Private Credit specialist Zagga expands steady income strategies beyond stock market alternatives for institutional and retail investors. Read more →

  • US Investors seek new fundraising opportunities internationally as domestic market saturation drives geographic diversification strategies. Read more →

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